Prediction Win FOR GOP In 2014- Can They Hold It In 2016?
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The website FiveThirtyEight has released a new report predicting the will lead in this next election cycle. In fact a 60% chance the Republicans will win the necessary six seats to take control of the Senate, with a 30% chance of acquiring 11 seats. Either way, former statistician believes the 2014 will be a win for the Republicans.
Fear
This obviously makes the very nervous. It is one thing to hand wring in the corners, but when a statistician is willing to post his predictions, is another. Back in July, FiveThirtyEight had posted correctly the would most likely retain the chamber. The new forecast now favors the Republicans to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.
This is partially due to the deterioration of Obama’s approval ratings, with links to the . Obama’s approval rating decreased to 42-43 from the average of 45 percent. Additionally, the has “done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions,” said.
This obviously makes the very nervous. It is one thing to hand wring in the corners, but when a statistician is willing to post his predictions, is another. Back in July, FiveThirtyEight had posted correctly the would most likely retain the chamber. The new forecast now favors the Republicans to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.
This is partially due to the deterioration of Obama’s approval ratings, with links to the . Obama’s approval rating decreased to 42-43 from the average of 45 percent. Additionally, the has “done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions,” said.
The Significance
What predicted is significant. had successfully predicted every state in the 2012 election, so people are taking notice for his 2014 prediction. Silver and his team crunch the numbers, in order to provide the outcome. [That discern math class in college was worth something.]
What predicted is significant. had successfully predicted every state in the 2012 election, so people are taking notice for his 2014 prediction. Silver and his team crunch the numbers, in order to provide the outcome. [That discern math class in college was worth something.]
Will It Sustain
Chris Cillizza a writer for concedes with Silverman’s prediction , but is not hopeful the can maintain majority in 2016. accurately accounts for 23 Republican seats, in comparison to 10 Democrats up for the 2016 election. Most of these GOP seats are in the Democratic states. In order to maintain control, if the GOP wins in 2014, the 23 Republican seats within the Democratic states will need to also be held.
Chris Cillizza a writer for concedes with Silverman’s prediction , but is not hopeful the can maintain majority in 2016. accurately accounts for 23 Republican seats, in comparison to 10 Democrats up for the 2016 election. Most of these GOP seats are in the Democratic states. In order to maintain control, if the GOP wins in 2014, the 23 Republican seats within the Democratic states will need to also be held.
Another Issue
I submit another issue is at play. The two opposing factions within the Republican party, tea party Republicans versus the old Republican party.
The GOP was happy for the support of the Tea Party movement, providing momentum for the party back in the day. However, not so much, while in the ranks of the party. House Republican leader has sided with the House no less than six times within the year, sharply opposing the Tea Party-backed members. This is only causing friction within the Republican party.
For those Tea Party members wishing to reduce government over-sight, decrease the ever increasing debt, reduce the federalism mindset, they will be fighting the and the current Old Republican Party.
I submit another issue is at play. The two opposing factions within the Republican party, tea party Republicans versus the old Republican party.
The GOP was happy for the support of the Tea Party movement, providing momentum for the party back in the day. However, not so much, while in the ranks of the party. House Republican leader has sided with the House no less than six times within the year, sharply opposing the Tea Party-backed members. This is only causing friction within the Republican party.
For those Tea Party members wishing to reduce government over-sight, decrease the ever increasing debt, reduce the federalism mindset, they will be fighting the and the current Old Republican Party.
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